The World Bank has raised its forecast for Egypt’s real GDP growth in the 2024/2025 fiscal year to 3.8%, up from an earlier estimate of 3.5%, citing signs of stabilization and recovery amid a complex regional and global economic backdrop.
The upward revision, published in the Bank’s June 2025 Global Economic Prospects report, reflects improving investor sentiment, policy continuity, and progress on structural reforms that have helped bolster Egypt’s macroeconomic resilience.
Looking ahead, the World Bank maintained its growth projection for FY2025/2026 at 4.2%, and anticipates a further rise to 4.6% in FY2026/2027, suggesting a gradual return to pre-crisis growth trajectories as global conditions normalize and domestic reforms take hold.
Positive Signals Amid Regional Headwinds
The revised projections come at a time when Egypt is navigating a delicate economic transition, balancing inflation control, currency pressures, and the need for inclusive growth. The World Bank noted that ongoing fiscal consolidation efforts, including subsidy rationalization and enhanced tax collection, have begun to yield results.
Additionally, recent government commitments to private sector expansion, infrastructure investment, and green transition initiatives—including those aligned with Egypt’s Vision 2030—are creating a more favorable environment for long-term growth.
However, the Bank also cautioned that regional instability, coupled with persistent global inflation and tight financial conditions, may continue to weigh on the outlook, underscoring the need for policy vigilance and social protection.
A Cautiously Optimistic Trajectory
Egypt’s economic growth slowed significantly in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, the global energy crisis, and successive supply chain shocks. However, multilateral partners such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank have broadly praised Egypt’s recent steps toward economic diversification, energy reform, and fiscal discipline.
As part of its recovery strategy, Egypt is seeking to strengthen key sectors such as manufacturing, tourism, agriculture, and renewable energy, while also accelerating digital transformation and financial inclusion.
International Backing
The World Bank’s forecast aligns with similar projections by other institutions, including the African Development Bank, which recently noted Egypt’s potential to become a regional growth driver in North Africa over the next three years.
The upward revision is likely to be viewed favorably by investors and credit agencies, especially as Egypt prepares to implement a new round of economic measures tied to its IMF-supported Extended Fund Facility and continued engagement with international donors.
