Egypt’s economy is on track to grow by 4% in the fiscal year 2024/25, supported by the continued implementation of economic reforms under the International Monetary Fund (IMF), according to a Reuters poll released on January 20. The median forecast, based on the insights of 19 economists, also predicts a gradual acceleration of growth, with GDP rising to 4.7% in 2025/26 and 5.0% by 2026/27.
Despite a slowdown in 2023/24, where growth dropped to 2.4% from 3.8% in the previous year—largely due to the impacts of a currency crisis and the conflict in Gaza, which disrupted Suez Canal revenues and tourism—Egypt’s medium-term outlook remains positive. The IMF and the World Bank have also projected moderate growth, with the IMF estimating a 3.6% increase for this fiscal year and 4.1% in 2025/26.
Egypt’s economy received a boost in 2023 through a landmark $8 billion financial reform package with the IMF, alongside $24 billion in investments from the United Arab Emirates. The ongoing reforms are expected to enhance Egypt’s economic environment, with the support of export-oriented industries, improving external competitiveness.
“Survey data suggest that the pound has started to benefit export-oriented industries via improved external competitiveness,” said James Swanston of Capital Economics, who is forecasting a 5% growth for this year. However, analysts caution that challenges remain, including rising inflation and global economic uncertainties.
While Egypt’s planning ministry has forecast a growth rate of 4% for 2024/25, some analysts, such as Monica Malik from Abu Dhabi’s ADCB, have projected a slightly higher growth rate of 4.5%, citing factors like the easing of monetary policy and the recovery of Suez Canal traffic. However, these positive developments may be offset by other ongoing economic challenges.
