If you’ve noticed your favorite coffee shop bill creeping up lately, you’re not alone. The cost of Arabica coffee beans, which make up the bulk of global production, has shot past $3.44 per pound, marking an eye-popping 80% rise in prices this year alone. Robusta beans have also seen a spike in prices, with a new surge in September 2024.
So, what’s behind the soaring cost of your daily cup of coffee? The short answer: weather and an insatiable global demand for that warm, comforting beverage.
Weather Woes in the World’s Coffee Hubs
The biggest coffee producers—Brazil and Vietnam—are battling extreme weather patterns that are hurting crop yields. In Vietnam, the worst drought in 70 years hit coffee farms earlier this year, followed by torrential rains in October, leaving farmers worried about a failed harvest.
Meanwhile, in Brazil, which produces most of the world’s Arabica beans, the weather hasn’t been kind either. Think: scorching heat and unpredictable rains, which are all contributing to an impending coffee shortage.
When Big Brands Feel the Heat
Big-name coffee roasters have been able to absorb rising costs for a while, but they can only do so much before prices start trickling down to your cup. Phine Nguyen, CEO of a major coffee exporter, says that many of these brands are reaching a tipping point. “They’ve held off as long as they could, but in 2025, you might start to see supermarket prices rise,” Nguyen says.
One well-known Italian coffee brand told media outlets they’ve tried their best to keep prices down, but even they couldn’t escape the reality of rising coffee bean costs. “We’ve always valued quality above all, but at this point, the prices have gone up so much that we have no choice but to raise ours,” they explained.
A Bitter Brew for Consumers
It’s not just the high-end brands that are feeling the pinch—everyone from the artisanal roasters to the coffee giants are adjusting their pricing models. One executive noted that companies in the coffee industry are grappling with tough decisions: “We’re not immune to the price hikes. We will have to adjust both our prices and possibly the size of our packaging.”
The Bigger Picture: Coffee & Climate Change
It’s not just an economic issue—there’s a bigger environmental story at play here. The rising cost of coffee is a direct result of climate change wreaking havoc on coffee-growing regions. Coffee trees are incredibly sensitive to changing temperatures and rainfall patterns. As these extremes become more frequent, crops are increasingly vulnerable.
This isn’t just a price bump you’ll notice on your morning latte—it’s a global issue that’s putting pressure on supply chains, farmers, and ultimately, the consumer.
So, What Does This Mean for Your Morning Coffee?
While the price of coffee isn’t expected to return to pre-pandemic lows anytime soon, there’s a silver lining. As the world embraces sustainability and eco-conscious choices, you might start seeing more brands offering solutions like sustainably sourced beans or even green coffee bonds. The hope is that over time, these practices will help counterbalance the volatility caused by unpredictable weather.
In the meantime, if you’re a coffee lover, get ready to budget a little more for your daily cup. The reality is, coffee prices are on the rise—and it looks like it’s here to stay for the foreseeable future. So, whether you’re sipping a flat white, indulging in a cold brew, or enjoying a simple espresso, remember: that comforting caffeine fix is costing a little more these days—but it’s all part of the bigger picture.
